Popular beats forecasts; sees bad loans falling-UPDATE 3

* Says 'reasonably optimistic' about 2010

* Bad loans reach 4.81 percent end-Dec, below forecasts

* CFO sees bad loans entries dropping 'dramatically' in '10

* Core capital 8.61 percent, up 20 percent yr-on-yr

* Shares up 6.15 percent

(Adds more details, comments from CFO, analysts, shares)

By Judy MacInnes

MADRID, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Spain's third-largest listed bank Popular said it was "reasonably optimistic" about the outlook for 2010 with a further slowdown in new bad loans, after posting forecast-beating full-year results.

Popular was more exposed than some retail banking peers to Spanish property companies hit by the end of the decade-long housing boom and the growth in its bad loans over the last 18 months has sparked concern among analysts.

But due to a slowdown in new bad loan entries combined with a brisk recovery rate in the fourth quarter, Popular's full-year bad loans ratio rose to 4.81 percent, below forecasts for around 5 percent.

Paradox of glut and shortage on the horizon as planning approvals ...

Planning approvals for blocks of flats fell the most, by 61% to 77,440 units. Detached family homes fell by 50% to 25,000.

Boom and Bust

From 1999 onwards planning approvals galloped away on a wave of cheap money that fuelled Spain’s deranged construction boom. Planning approvals peaked at 866,000 in 2006, though according to figures from Spain’s College of Architects they went even higher that year – to 921,000. They have dropped off precipitously since then, throwing millions of construction sector workers out of work.

What does this mean? Firstly, over-building in the last decade means there is now a glut of new property for sale that will take years for the market to absorb. That will depress prices in the segments affected until the glut has been moped up.

Secondly, it means that Spain’s construction sector is being decimated to such an extent it could take a decade or more to recover once the collapse in activity bottoms out. Paradoxically that means that, alongside a massive glut of new properties that nobody wants, there may be a shortage of new properties of the type that some market segments do want.

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